The end? "Ukraine will cause chaos…" VIDEO

Unlike the previous fuel shortage, which began in late May and lasted until mid-July, the current crisis is hitting Moscow and the Moscow region particularly hard, according to social media users. Gazprom Neft and Tatneft gas station chains have already restricted fuel sales in Moscow.

“It cannot be said that there is no fuel at all, but there is a crisis. This is not merely a personal problem and uncertainty over whether someone can leave the city and return, but also an economic issue,” Oleg Grigorenko, editor-in-chief of the independent Russian online outlet 7x, which has been designated a “foreign agent” in Russia, told Deutsche Welle.

According to Grigorenko, taxi drivers, courier services and the construction sector in several regions are already seeing a decline in orders. He says the reason is that many supply chains are heavily dependent on fuel. 

“With its calm atmosphere and slower pace of life, today’s Sochi resembles the period before the Olympic Games, when there were few cars on the roads and the city had far fewer tourists and residents. But here’s the thing: there is no gas in Sochi,” Igor Zakharchenko, a real estate agent from the Black Sea city, wrote on Instagram.

Consequences of poor fuel quality

Igor Anansky, deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma’s Energy Committee, told Russian broadcaster RTVI that fuel supplies would likely return to normal within two to three weeks.

However, economist Nikolai Korshenyovsky, who left Russia in protest against its war of aggression against Ukraine and now lives abroad, believes this is unlikely. In an interview with DW, he also pointed to the deteriorating quality of petroleum products. He said acquaintances had sent him photos of their cars displaying warning lights on the dashboards, indicating engine damage caused by poor-quality fuel.

“The car no longer starts and needs repairs. From those same people, I know that there are waiting lists at auto repair shops lasting for months, even in Moscow. And then they have to wait months for spare parts. It seems that some vehicles simply cannot handle the fuel being put into their tanks. Of course, the war is ongoing, and it is not known exactly what is being produced or in what quantities the ingredients are being mixed into the fuel,” Korshenyovsky said.

He sees the current problems in the oil and gas industry as a sign of a deepening crisis. According to Bloomberg, Russian oil exports have fallen more sharply during the war than ever before. At the same time, oil production has also declined.

“Russia produced 11.5 million barrels per day in 2019. Today, that figure is below nine million. If this trend continues and problems with oil refining worsen, production could probably fall to eight million barrels. That would create the conditions for a full-scale economic and systemic crisis,” Korshenyovsky predicts.

He does not see a quick solution to these problems and believes the situation in Russia is becoming similar to that of Venezuela, with an economy characterized by a chronic decline in gross domestic product.

Illusory Hopes for Oil Imports

According to Vyacheslav Shiryaev, a Russian economic analyst who also lives abroad, addressing the fuel shortage by importing fuel from India, China or other countries, as proposed by Russian authorities, will not produce results.

“Given the isolation Russia is facing, it is impossible to secure supplies of 200,000 tonnes of fuel per day, which is roughly the amount of gasoline and diesel Russia needs every day,” he told DW. Shiryaev, who has publicly opposed the war in Ukraine, has been designated a “foreign agent” by the Russian authorities.

In an interview with DW, Russian economist Igor Lipsits points out that it is impossible to quickly restore damaged refineries. At the same time, he says, they remain vulnerable to potential new air strikes. That is why the authorities are restricting fuel consumption.

“That trend has already begun,” he notes. Medical facilities, police and firefighters, municipal vehicles, as well as vehicles belonging to the security forces and government agencies, are being given access to gas stations and fuel supplies.

“This is happening in front of people who are waiting for hours, which is causing widespread discontent,” emphasizes the Kremlin critic, who ended his career as a professor at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics due to increasing political pressure and now lives and works in exile in Europe.