Experts in shock: "Unprecedented" — This has never been recorded, and 2027 could be even worse

However, current measurements show that sea-surface temperatures are already more than 2°C above normal, while the latest forecasts from the UK Met Office indicate that this warming could exceed 3°C later this year as El Niño approaches its peak.

That would be an unprecedented event in records dating back to 1950 and potentially the strongest El Niño since the 19th century, according to the Met Office.

“We still have many months for this event to develop, and that is one of the reasons why we are increasingly confident that this will be a record-setting event,” said Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at the US research organization Berkeley Earth.

Some other climate organizations have forecast even more extreme values than those projected by the Met Office, potentially reaching 4°C above average. 

If that were to happen, “it is not beyond the realm of possibility to say that this could be the strongest El Niño phenomenon in the last 500, or even 1,000 years,” Hausfather said, while noting that it is impossible to make definitive claims about such a distant past.

2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record

During an El Niño event, a significant amount of heat is transferred from the ocean into the atmosphere.

Dr Nick Dunstone, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office, said this can lead to a rise in global average temperatures, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of El Niño.

“Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record,” he said.

Earlier this month, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned that El Niño could threaten tens of millions of people in vulnerable countries with crisis-level acute food insecurity.