Will Morocco take over Ceuta and Melilla?

The mass crossing of migrants over the border has raised fears of possible "hybrid pressure" against Spain, particularly at a time when Madrid is reassessing how much it can rely on the support of its traditional allies in NATO and the European Union.

Morocco has for decades claimed sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla, which it considers territories under Spanish occupation, Politico points out.

Recently, with the support of some international partners, Rabat has once again intensified its position regarding the future status of these cities.

Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles rejected any possibility of negotiations over sovereignty, saying that "Ceuta and Melilla must not be called into question" and that Spain's territorial integrity and sovereignty are non-negotiable.

Fear of a new "Green March"

In Madrid, warnings have emerged about the possibility of a scenario similar to Morocco's "Green March" in 1975, when a mass mobilization of civilians contributed to Spain's withdrawal from Western Sahara.

Former Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel García-Margallo assessed that Madrid must clearly demonstrate that control over Ceuta and Melilla is not subject to negotiation.

Ceuta and Melilla represent remnants of the former Spanish Empire and have been under Madrid's control since 1668 and 1497, respectively.

Today, they have the status of autonomous cities of Spain and are part of the European Union.

Since gaining independence in 1956, Morocco has continuously claimed sovereignty over these territories, and in recent years such positions have received support from some American and Israeli officials.

U.S. Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart previously said that Ceuta and Melilla are located on Moroccan territory, while Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, criticized Spain over what he described as "colonial enclaves in Africa."

The Israeli mission in Madrid later stated that these comments did not represent the official position of the government.

Not the first time

Historians point out that Rabat has used pressure against Madrid before.

A crisis over the uninhabited Perejil Island occurred in 2002, when Moroccan forces occupied the island and Spain responded with a military intervention.

A similar form of pressure was seen in 2021, when around 8,000 migrants entered Ceuta after Moroccan forces withdrew from the border area.

"Spain has proven itself a stable and influential actor"

The Spanish government rejected claims that the crisis demonstrated Madrid's weakness.

Spanish Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska said the country had shown that it is a stable and influential regional actor.

However, the security situation of Ceuta and Melilla is further complicated by uncertainty over NATO's willingness to respond in the event of a potential crisis. While there were previously indications that these territories could fall under the Alliance's protection, the positions of some allies have changed in recent years, Politico reported.

The Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected any possibility of questioning the status of the two enclaves, stating that "the Spanish character of Ceuta and Melilla is beyond any doubt and is recognized by international law."