NATO alliance faces risk of collapse at Ankara Summit

Trump, who has never shown much enthusiasm when it came to pledging U.S. support for Europe's defense, has become even more skeptical over the past year, as European leaders refused to back him in the war with Iran.

CNN notes that Trump has never explicitly ruled out a complete U.S. withdrawal from NATO. He has repeatedly questioned the alliance's value for America, arguing that Washington is effectively funding and underwriting European security on its own.

In addition, Trump has once again threatened to take control of Greenland from a NATO member, while at times showing a more conciliatory stance toward Russian President Vladimir Putin.

As a result, some European officials are seriously concerned that Russia could be planning operations on NATO territory to test the resolve and solidarity of alliance members.

All of this has created an extremely tense and difficult atmosphere ahead of the summit, which Trump, by his own admission, is attending reluctantly.

A source familiar with the situation told CNN that Trump and his team were clearly informed behind closed doors that skipping the summit, regardless of Trump's reasons, would represent a major sign of disrespect toward the host, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

"It is time for allies to step up"

Tanjug/AP Photo/Hussein Malla

"The Ankara summit is a moment when our allies finally need to step up, and I know that is exactly what President Trump expects," said Trump's ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker.

European leaders, meanwhile, hope the meeting in Ankara will pass without major drama. They plan to present new defense spending commitments in an effort to ease Trump's anger.

However, in concerned private discussions over the past few days, many diplomats and officials admitted to CNN that no one can guarantee a smooth summit given the president's poor mood.

Behind closed doors, Trump has angrily complained about the lack of NATO support during the attack on Iran, and that rhetoric quickly spilled over into his public statements on social media.

Failed negotiations and a bitter dispute with Giorgia Meloni

European officials have strongly rejected Trump's criticism, emphasizing that no one consulted them before the war with Iran even began.

Nevertheless, many of them have pledged military assistance to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although tensions in the crucial maritime passage have slowed the full restoration of commercial traffic.

Senior U.S. officials confirmed that the situation in the strait will be one of the topics discussed in Ankara, but they also expressed serious doubts over whether European nations have the military capabilities to make any meaningful contribution.

However, Trump's dispute with European leaders last month did not manage to derail the G7 summit in France. In fact, buoyed by positive developments in talks with Iran, Trump appeared to be on good terms with colleagues he had harshly criticized in previous months.

But immediately after leaving France, he reignited a public dispute with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, claiming that she had "begged" him for a joint photo, to which Meloni responded by accusing him of making up stories.

Instead of tensions easing, Trump made the bizarre remark on Sunday that he should seek a "restraining order" against her.

A U.S. official told CNN that the strained relationship between the two once-close leaders adds another element of uncertainty to the summit.

Rutte's attempt...

Tanjug/AP Photo/Hussein Malla

Mark Rutte, NATO secretary-general, has spent the past year and a half trying, with varying degrees of success, to manage Trump's frequent shifts in mood. He attempted to ease tensions by using charts and figures.

He brought tables showing a dramatic increase in European defense spending, attributing the rise directly to Trump's pressure.

He also gently pushed back against the U.S. leader over his anger regarding Iran, insisting that there had been "only isolated cases in which the U.S. was disappointed, but that, generally speaking, European allies had always been there."

CNN notes that this approach had already "worked" for Rutte in the past.

European leaders are hoping for the same outcome in Ankara, but that scenario now appears to many to be an unrealistic hope.

At the same time, over the past several months, the U.S. has begun withdrawing its forces much faster than any European official could have imagined, even though Trump has been threatening for years to reduce the American military presence on the continent.

These constant shifts have left Europeans completely confused, as they now urgently seek to develop a plan for the day when the United States no longer provides the bulk of the old continent's defense shield.

But the question remains whether the Trump administration is even prepared for such a discussion.

Zelensky arrives for dinner, but not for meetings

Tanjug/AP Photo/Hussein Malla

Many are openly concerned that any weakening of the U.S. military presence could embolden Russia, whose offensive in Ukraine is currently stalled.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend the leaders' dinner in Ankara but will not take part in the summit's official meetings — a clear signal that Kyiv's ambitions to eventually join NATO remain on hold.

Zelensky will nevertheless hold a private meeting with Trump on Wednesday, while European countries plan to pledge tens of billions of euros in additional military aid for Ukraine at the summit.