A new phase of the war begins; Kyiv awaits "hell"

What has changed is the language the Kremlin is using to justify the attacks, and it is all tied to one specific event. Moscow accused Ukraine of deliberately killing 21 students last week in an attack on Starobilsk in the Luhansk region.

Ukraine continues to insist that it struck a military facility in territory under Russian occupation. However, Moscow is now portraying the incident — which it claims was a deliberate attack on civilians — as a legitimate reason for retaliation.

“An attempt to divert attention”

Military analyst and former Ukrainian intelligence officer Ivan Stupak believes the escalation in rhetoric is a sign that Moscow is struggling to control the narrative surrounding the war.

“When you have problems with the economy and within Russian society, pressure for revenge builds,” he says.

Andriy Kovalenko of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council believes that, besides the attack in Luhansk, there are other reasons behind the threats. The first, he says, is Russia’s lack of success on the battlefield.

“In the absence of strategic results on the battlefield, the Kremlin is trying to exert psychological pressure on Ukraine,” he adds.

In short, the war, now entering its fifth year, is currently not unfolding in the direction Moscow had hoped for. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that “the character of the war is changing in favor of Ukrainian forces — at least for now.” The report states that Russia is losing more soldiers for smaller territorial gains, while its losses have exceeded the number of new recruits for five consecutive months.

Russians threaten new attacks on Kyiv

Kyiv is still recovering from the latest Russian “retaliatory strike” over the weekend, when Russia launched nearly 600 drones and 90 missiles, mostly targeting the capital. Ukrainian air defenses destroyed most of the drones, but 35 missiles still hit their targets.

The bombardment also included the rare use of at least one Russian Oreshnik hypersonic missile, equipped with six warheads and extremely difficult to intercept using conventional air defense systems. Analyst Stupak says the missile is primarily being used “for propaganda purposes.” So far, he notes, Russian Oreshnik missiles have carried only inert warheads and caused limited damage.

Still, Kyiv would struggle to withstand repeated attacks of this scale. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky renewed his appeals to allies to send more air defense systems. Yurii Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, says the main problem remains “the limited number of interceptor missiles available to Ukrainian air defenses.” U.S.-made Patriot missile system systems remain the only effective weapon for intercepting Russian ballistic missiles, and there are not enough of them.