Putin won't stop; U.S. Intelligence: A major offensive is coming — He will become even more dangerous

The reports outline a range of possible scenarios for Russian aggression, from cyberattacks to a limited ground incursion, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports.

These assessments, described by U.S. officials, come amid shortages of certain types of critical munitions that the U.S. military would need in the event of a future conflict with Russia or China.

U.S. stockpiles of such weapons have been significantly reduced by military aid shipments to Ukraine following Russia’s invasion, as well as by the United States' conflict with Iran.

According to other officials, the stockpiles considered to be at risk include long-range precision-guided missiles, tactical missile systems used by ground forces, and short-range Stinger surface-to-air missiles.

The United States had previously assessed that Putin would not provoke a NATO member state while continuing military operations in Ukraine. However, U.S. officials say that assessment changed earlier this year, as the Russian president has become increasingly cornered in Ukraine and faces growing domestic pressure to deliver a victory.

Ukrainian drones have inflicted increasing damage on both the Russian military and the country’s oil industry, while Putin’s forces have made only marginal gains along the front line at a high cost.

Putin’s goal is to divide the Alliance

According to U.S. officials, if Russia were to attack NATO while the war in Ukraine is ongoing, Putin’s objective would be to divide the Alliance.

As Putin seeks to consolidate Russia’s positions in Ukraine, U.S. intelligence officials are assessing whether Moscow intends to intensify its aggressive actions against European allies in the near future, the sources said.

U.S. officials emphasize that their concern is that Putin could become even more dangerous if he is increasingly cornered.

Potential threats range from cyberattacks against a NATO member state or the deployment of unmarked armed groups to seize territory, to a limited incursion on the Alliance’s eastern flank. According to U.S. intelligence assessments, any Russian action could take place between this autumn and 2029.

The likelihood of the most extreme scenario—a limited ground incursion—is considered low, but the assessments indicate that the risk increases over time.

Leaked Russian intelligence assessment

A leaked Russian intelligence assessment reportedly reveals a hardened strategic approach to the war, projecting a prolonged conflict with no ceasefire, no localized truces, and no withdrawals, according to social media accounts that monitor the war in Ukraine.

The blockade of the Black Sea would remain a bargaining tool until the end of hostilities, alongside the territories occupied by Russia. The assessment reportedly states that Moscow rejects all ceasefire proposals—whether related to airspace, energy infrastructure, or broader military operations—while maintaining that its current manpower is sufficient to sustain military operations without a new mobilization until at least February 2027.

Operational plans targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure, including bridges across the Dnipro River, are reportedly fully prepared and awaiting political authorization, signaling the potential for further escalation depending on reciprocal strikes. According to the reported assessment, Moscow is preparing for a war of attrition rather than a negotiated settlement.

The authenticity of the leaked assessment has not been independently verified.