Is a hantavirus outbreak starting today?

The luxury cruise ship “Hondius,” sailing under the Dutch flag, was carrying around 150 passengers and crew members from 23 countries when the hantavirus outbreak occurred.

Three people — an elderly married couple from the Netherlands and a German citizen — have died since the outbreak began on board.

The World Health Organization later confirmed 10 cases of hantavirus infection.

In the meantime, the cruise ship arrived in Rotterdam, while the passengers and most of the crew had already left the vessel earlier.

They, as well as the people who had been in contact with them, were placed in quarantine in several countries around the world.

“Second- and third-generation cases”

However, because of the long incubation period, it is impossible to know whether the passengers who left the ship as early as April 24 transmitted the disease.

American scientist Dr. Steven Quay calculated that all second-generation cases — meaning people who developed symptoms after contact with the “index patient,” identified as 70-year-old Leo Schilperoord — took an average of 22 days to become ill, according to The Daily Telegraph.

Quay estimated that third-generation cases — people who would become infected by cruise ship passengers — could begin to appear around May 19, if the same incubation period of approximately three weeks is confirmed.

Index patient and 9 second-generation cases

In previous outbreaks of the Andes strain of hantavirus in Argentina, the peak period for symptom onset was between 22 and 28 days.

About 30 passengers left the cruise ship on the island of Saint Helena before the outbreak was discovered. Among them were Mirjam Schilperoord (69), the wife of the index patient Leo Schilperoord, as well as a Swiss passenger who is currently hospitalized because of the virus.

“They were probably in contact with hundreds of people”

Mirjam was so ill when she arrived in South Africa that the airline KLM refused to allow her to board the flight, and she later died from the virus.

At one point, it was suspected that a flight attendant had been infected by her, but it was later confirmed that she was not infected.

A British citizen who left the cruise ship on the island of Tristan da Cunha is also suspected of being infected.

All 30 passengers left the ship before it became clear that they might be carriers of the deadly disease, and during the last two weeks they had probably been in contact with hundreds of people.

“The Andes strain may be airborne”

As reported by The Daily Telegraph, it is now almost fully confirmed that the virus can spread from person to person through bodily fluids that may contain infectious particles. Experts say the risk to the general public is low because the virus is transmitted only through close contact.

However, there are worrying signs that the Andes strain may be more contagious than previously believed.

Professor Joseph Allen from Harvard University said he had been in contact with a doctor from the “Hondius,” who expressed concern because some infected individuals reportedly had no close contact with the index patient. Allegedly, they had only passed by each other in dining halls or other common areas.

Others became infected at the same party even though they were seated at different tables, up to two meters apart. Later, two patients who were placed in rooms with hantavirus patients also became infected, despite there being no close contact.

“A level comparable to Omicron”

One French citizen and one American citizen who were evacuated from the cruise ship tested positive for the virus this week, bringing the total number of suspected cases to ten.